Posts Tagged ‘investing’
Sector Selection or Country Selection
Wednesday, January 5th, 2011John Hussman and Jimmy Buffett?
Tuesday, January 4th, 2011It Can Be Simple
Monday, January 3rd, 2011Sunday Morning Coffee
Sunday, January 2nd, 2011The Big Picture For The Week of January 2, 2011
Saturday, January 1st, 2011Uncertainty In Investing Is the Enemy
Tuesday, February 9th, 2010I have noticed that when many Kiwis join the world of investing in bonds and shares, their aim is to achieve a return that ‘beats the bank’. Using bank deposits as your performance yardstick in this way arguably misses the whole point of investing. The bank is not the enemy, uncertainty is.
People who invest their capital in a wide range of assets that together form a diversified portfolio do so for one reason, and its not to ‘beat the bank’.
The goal is to protect themselves against uncertainty and risk. Nobody knows when or where the next financial crisis or dramatic shift in markets or economic fortunes will happen. The vast weight of research to date shows that investing a portfolio across a diversified range of assets is the best way to mitigate risk, generate an income and to protect and grow capital over the longer term.
One stark lesson I have seen over the 20 years I have been in the investment sector is that uncertainty and risk can come from anywhere. Even investments that ‘look safe’ can get caught out.
The dramatic impact that the sharp decline in interest rates this year has had on short-term deposits is a classic example. Deposits are a low risk investment for sure, but for anyone that had all their capital invested in short-term deposits when interest rates fell from over 8% to just over 2% suffered a 75% decline in income, in a matter of months.If that’s not disastrous enough, over the past six months they have seen consumer price inflation rise 2% (goodbye interest return!) and house and shares prices inflate by 25% or more. In other words, this cash just lost 25% of its spending power in the housing and equity market.
Certainly, when you have money invested in shares and bonds there will be times when your portfolio underperforms bank deposits, market volatility is part of investing. If you don’t want volatility that’s fine, buy bank deposits, but you need to recognise this is not as safe as it seems – see the previous two paragraphs.
Certainly, investing involves risk. As soon as you invest into financial and asset markets such as bonds, shares and property, you are exposed to risk.For example, from October 2007 to March 2009 the New Zealand equity market fell 41% in the wake of the recession and global financial crisis.
If you held a portfolio of New Zealand shares it probably fell by a similar margin, perhaps a bit less if it was made up of blue chips, or a bit more if it was mainly smaller or riskier stocks. The point is; if the market falls, your portfolio will fall with it. Over this period, 94% of NZ stocks fell in value. That’s a very strong tide to swim against.
Being diversified into other markets didn’t help either with over 90% of global share markets fell in value over this period. The very few exceptions included ‘heavy-weight’ markets like Ghana, Tunisia, Jordan and Bangladesh.
It is clear then that during this tumultuous 17-month period, if you were invested in shares, there simply was nowhere to hide.
But since March 2009 the reverse has happened. Our market has rebounded by 30% and most other markets around the world have risen by a similar, or larger, amount. Almost every investor in shares should have seen their portfolios rise by 15% to 20% or more over this period as they hitched a ride with the market. In the bad times we can blame the market, in the good times it’s hats off to the market.
As the past couple of years have shown, investing is challenging. This is precisely why most people take a balanced approach to their portfolios; combining some low risk investments with some higher risk shares and property.
When it comes to investing it is very important to keep up with the Joneses, and the Joneses are not bank deposits, but the real world of food, wine, travel, education, healthcare, housing, movies and power bills. The cost of living is a far better benchmark than ‘beating the bank’.
This is a modified article from Cam Watson. To read the complete article visit www.craigsip.com Craigs Investment Partners Limited (formerly ABN Amro Craigs.) is an NZX Firm that was established in 1984. It is one of New Zealand’s largest and most established investment advisory firms. Craigs Investment Partners is 100% owned by certain staff and close business associates.
Article Source: Uncertainty In Investing Is the Enemy – Not the Bank
Mumbai Stock Market Growth Outperforms Shanghai Over Past Decade
Tuesday, January 19th, 2010Mumbai may be on the way to overtaking Shanghai as a financial hub in the coming years based on data revealed by the Financial Times which shows that the Bombay Stock Exchange’s main index significantly outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s main index in terms of growth in the past decade.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex grew by 249 percent over the last 10 years, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index managed 140 percent growth. This is more remarkable given the Shanghai market has the advantage of a fixed population access; Chinese nationals can only invest in the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges and require special permission to acquire stocks from overseas. Indians meanwhile are free to invest where they choose, however increasing amounts of foreign capital and returning Indian investment are now flowing back to India (the Shanghai Stock Exchange places limitations on foreign investment with a only 79 foreign institutions currently able to buy and sell A (locally priced) shares).
Another influence to the Chinese market has been increases often caused by government liquidity due to the stimulus plan. Speculations on bubbles are rampant when it comes to China’s indexes, again a feature India’s exchange does not tend to have. Government interference in the Mumbai market is far more limited.
The BSE traces its roots back to 1830, with its primary trading index, the Sensex, being first compiled in 1986 with a base level of 100. The BSE is now the largest exchange in South Asia and the 12th largest globally with an estimated market capitalization of US$1.03 trillion in June 2009. There are are over 4,00 listed companies on the exchange. In contrast, the SSE was only reformed in 1990 and lists some 900 companies. It is the sixth largest exchange in the world with a market capitalization of US$2.07 trillion, but is dominated by government-owned companies and is not fully open to foreign investors. Shanghai’s primary index, the SSE Composite IX was formed in 1991 with a base value of 100.
This article was written for the Asia business news site, 2point6billion.com, by the business experts at Dezan Shira & Associates, an India and China consulting company helping foreign companies do business in China and India.
They also contribute to the India business news website, India-Briefing.com.