Yet another stockbroker

A fickle stock market encourages good-humored mockery.

Recently, as I watched the premiere of a sitcom, an obvious omission breached television etiquette. Silence followed every exaggerated comedic set-up. There was no laugh track. Where were the premeditated giggles from the show’s “audience?” At last, the viewer determines the funny moment.

It then occurred to me, the writers of this new show adopted an aspect used by investment news programs.

I will be the first to admit, in addition to the miscellaneous printed and electronic financial information, the television provides an abundance of supplemental financial news. However, the shows often leave me asking, “What’s missing?” In addition, the shows may very well leave viewers with the ultimate responsibility, which segment is entertainment and which is practical advice.

Perhaps you may recognize one of the canned statements below that investment show gurus continuously utter. Although each may be applicable (and in may cases vital to successful financial planning), notice the missing “laugh tracks.”

How many times have you heard “Invest For the Long Term?” The analyst may be leaving out “because I hope you forget my last appearance and the short term disaster I have caused for the viewers who actually acted on my recommendation.” Each investor’s long-term outlook is somewhat different for the other’s and you should always review the guests’ recommendations with caution. What is his or her reasoning for such revelation?

“Buy and Hold.” The missing part: “because I have no idea of an exit strategy to recommend.” True enough, the more successful investors are those who invest according to a well-planned strategy and stick to it. They generally hold onto their winners. There are, however, times that will dictate an exit strategy.

Finally, there’s “Use Asset Allocation.” The missing part: “because I cannot tell you which asset historically does better in this particular market environment.” There are many ways to accomplish diversification in your portfolio and it does not always have to revolve around the division of stocks, bonds, and cash. Depending on your particular objectives, time horizons, and risks, an appropriate allocation may be derived from the use of just one type of asset. Either way, there are no guarantees when you place your money in the stock market and it is best to remind yourself of the risks of each investment. Try including real estate, collectibles and insurance products in your general financial plan.

We can all watch the appearance investment gurus make on financial shows. Perhaps we can include light-hearted follow-up statements as if we were watching a Rocky Horror film. We often enjoy the amusement provided by television personalities, however, it is important to review your investments regularly. Always examine your motive behind each buy and sell.

In actuality, your financial future is no laughing matter and should be guided with thorough commentary. Television shows come and go; your finances may one day be a legacy.

Wardlaw’s belief is that familiar life elements best illustrate practical investment strategies; not typical investment jargon. With that philosophy, the author assists financial planners/advisors, brokerage firms, periodicals, and other investment information syndicates create informative and entertaining articles. For comments and questions, please contact the author at tools2invest@yahoo.com

Technorati Tags: sitcom investing, television shows, trading

Mortgage brokers play an essential and important role all over the economy. Nowadays, mortgage broker bond becomes the important bond and it is required for the people who are engaged in the business of mortgage broker business, mortgage lending business. Mortgage brokers or lenders or dealers are required to obtain license and permit from the licensing department. This mortgage broker license is required for the mortgage brokers who are engaged in the business of mortgage in state. To obtain this mortgage broker license, the applicant is required to obtain mortgage broker bond from the appropriate state. Mortgage broker bonds are issued as per the statutes and ordinance of the state and federal jurisdiction.

Mortgage broker bond ensures proper performance of mortgage business without any default act of the mortgage broker or lender. Mortgage broker bonds are issued all over the different parts of the states and most of the industries analyzed the need of mortgage broker bond in the state. Mortgage broker bond protects the obligee against the non performance of contract by the principal in the state and enforce the mortgage broker to give a performance. Today, trend has been changed and most of the people enforce to issue mortgage broker bonds as per the state ordinance. Mortgage broker bond also forms part of different kinds of surety bonds and this mortgage broker bond are issued in separate forms and different bond amounts.

Mortgage broker bonds play an effective role in the economy and all most every part of the world mortgage broker bonds are required. Mortgage broker bond are issued as per the rules and regulations of the state statutes and ordinance. All mortgage brokers of the state are required to obtain a mortgage broker bond from the appropriate surety bonding company. Nowadays, more number of surety Bonding Company comes forward to issue mortgage broker surety bond to the people as per their requirement and needs. This mortgage broker bonds are issued to the people as per their requirement and different premiums.

When people recognize the purpose and use of surety bond, then it can be said that nonperformance and default act of the contract will be avoided and prevented. When the mortgage broker or lender or dealer fails to perform the contract, then the obligee can sue the mortgage broker or lender or dealer for non-performance of contract. The obligee has every right to sue both the mortgage broker and surety for the non-performance of contract. When all requirements are satisfied and legally compiled by the applicant, mortgage broker bond will be issued to the applicant. Mortgage broker bond and mortgage broker license are the most important requirements needed for the mortgage broker or lender or dealer.

Ron victor is an Expert Seo copywriter for Surety Bonds. He written articles like Florida Mortgage Broker Bond, Contractor License Bond, ICC Broker Bond and Alabama Surety Bond. For more information visit our site Motor Vehicle Dealer bond .Contact him at ron.seocopywriter@gmail.com.

Technorati Tags: mortgage brokers, stock brokers, bonds, stocks, broker license

The soybean futures market went limit-up at the open on Friday (29 June, 2007).

Limit days are one of the reasons I prefer day-trading to other trading styles where positions are held for days or weeks. Imagine you had been long when the market closed on Thursday. Then you would be delighted with the action on Friday, sitting on a large windfall profit!

But imagine for an awful moment that you were short on Thursday close with a stop placed 5 points above the close. When the market opened on Friday your stop would have been triggered, but if the stop order was actioned at all it would have been at around 50 points above the previous close! That is an instance of the market gapping through your stop loss and inflicting far greater losses than you had anticipated - ten times more in this case.

But that is not the half of it! More than likely, the stop order would not execute because under the rules for trading this contract, the market was locked limit up (50 points) for much of the session and trading was suspended. Fortunately, on this occasion, price pulled back late in the session allowing trading to recommence, so your stop would have executed before the end of the day. But imagine how you would feel if the market remained limit up into the close. You would endure a miserable weekend wondering if Monday would be another limit up day, costing you another 50 points with no way to exit your trade. Indeed, it is possible to have a run of several limit days in succession, with disastrous consequences for your account.

Of course, markets can gap through stop loss points when day-trading as well, but it is much rarer than when you hold positions over night or across weekends. The day-trader always closes outstanding positions before the end of the primary session, so is not nearly so exposed to dramatic moves through stop loss points.

Is there anything you can do about limit days? The best defense is to protect your position with futures options instead of normal stops. For example, when you go short soybeans at, say, 840 you may be able to purchase the 840 futures call option for 18 points ($900). If you choose to execute this option, you are granted a long futures contract at 840 points. This means that no matter how high the market goes, you cannot lose more than 18 points (because your 840 short is offset by the 840 long, so your only exposure is the 18 point premium).

This insurance will cost you, of course, because if you exit your short position at, say, 820 for a 20 point profit, you will find that the price you get for your 840 futures call will be much less than you paid. If you can get 6 points for it, you have made 20 points on your short futures position, but lost 12 points on your long call position, giving a net profit of 8 points. For the long term trader, this may be less significant. For instance, if the market declines over a few weeks to 700 giving you a 140 point profit, your futures call option will almost certainly have lost the full 18 points of value, but this still leaves you a full 122 point profit and lets you sleep easy through events like limit up days.

Even if you decide against using options in your normal trading strategy, they might still save your bacon in an emergency. When the US experienced the first discovery of Mad Cow Disease the futures market for live cattle went limit down for several days. This was in a period where there had been a sustained up-trend in cattle prices, so many traders were caught in long positions. The thing to remember is that when the futures market goes limit up or down, trading is suspended in futures contracts but not in futures options. Therefore, when the live cattle went limit down, it was still possible to buy futures put options which would serve to protect against further major declines. The problem with this is that the put option premiums are sky high in this scenario, so you will still incur a very substantial loss. Still, if you want to get out at all costs and the futures market is locked, this is the way to do it.

The other thing to notice from this discussion is the importance of trading small. If you are trading too many contracts and get caught on the wrong side of a limit move, you can be wiped out in a flash. That is why professional traders limit planned exposures (their planned stop loss points) to less than 2.5% of their overall account. Even if a disaster occurs, and they suffer a loss 10 times greater than they planned for, they are still in the game. Anybody risking more than 4 or 5% is likely to be dealt a blow from which they cannot recover, and anybody risking 10% or more is dead in the water.

A further consideration is that limit moves following sudden bad news are often over reactions. If your position is small relative to your account size, you will have the capacity to ride out the storm, and exit at much better prices when the first panic recedes and prices retrace towards former levels. Traders carrying too much risk will not be able to do this because they will suffer margin calls and be forced to exit contracts at the worst possible time.

David Bennett trades US commodity futures from his home on the Gold Coast in Australia. He provides coaching and mentoring services for people wanting to start trading for themselves. Visit http://www.12oclocktrades.com to read more futures trading articles.

Technorati Tags: futures trading, stock market, futures market, put options

You no longer have to worry about brokerage fees if you don’t want to. You can simply use the money you already have to give online trading a go. Some stocks can be expensive, but you don’t have to start out with blue chips, or you don’t have to buy many. Just take your time and you can get in at your own speed.

Trading online gives traders the opportunity to get started before online trading is old book. So even if you only have a small amount of money to play with you can start with penny stocks and work yourself up.

Before you begin, have a look at our hints for starting out in online trading.
Do your homework:

There are many online sites about stock trading all over the World Wide Web. It’s often hard to know where to start. You need to take some time to investigate a few sites that you are thinking about using. Some sites are held in high esteem and others don’t have many user reviews. Some sites are easy to use and don’t ask you to risk everything. Others are loaded with lingo and indicate that you should turn over your savings. Be careful of shallow promises and too much lingo. Never turn over your hard earned dollars if you don’t understand the site. When you take part in online trading you need to transfer money online, so you need to make sure you trust the site you are using. Never use a site that you can’t find real information about, like their phone number or address. Check out what kind of built in security they have on their site, who hosts the site and what kind of pricing they provide.
Some more homework:

Even though online trading has made the stock market available to many, that doesn’t mean that you are trading completely without risk. Even trading in penny stocks will leave you slightly bitter if you make the wrong move. Good online sites will offer the new investor some basic lessons and some information about the stock market. Take some time to learn a bit about it before you jump in headfirst. Learn about the risks as well as the rewards and learn about the companies you might potentially be buying into.

Double-check your sources:

Once you feel like you have chosen a trust worthy online stock site and you have looked into the basics of investing, it’s time to get into the game. But before you do so you need to find out how it is going to work. Look in to how you will pay for your stocks, which you can follow up with and if there is some one responsible for your portfolio.

Set your limits:

No matter how careful you are or how much research you do there is still a chance for risk. When playing the stock market game you have to know when to stop. You should never use money that you need to live or that you have already committed elsewhere. You need to set a budget and make sure that you stick to it. Once you make profits you can invest more but never start out spending more than you can.

Expect the un-expected:

Well expect to not expect! If you are trading online you won’t have a full service broker. You won’t have the guidance to begin with. So don’t expect to make millions over night. In fact you will probably start out with mixed results. Learn from those results.

The World Wide Web has made online trading accessible to many people. With lower fees and the fast results of a twenty-four hour market, the investment door is wide open and is every inviting. Don’t forget that you are playing with real money and do your research!

Get your Momentum Stock Trading System and sign up for my free weekly online trading system newsletter here at: http://www.stressfreetrading.com

Technorati Tags: online trading, trading tips, stock options, trading site

“Those that don’t know history are destined to repeat it.” – Edmund Burke

Trading is a business. Like any business, it has items of value. In your trading business, your “inventory” of cash is the most important asset. You must preserve it and increase it at all costs.

You also have financial tools. One of your business’ more subtle items of value is your decision making process. You must constantly be striving to improve it.

This is where a trading diary comes in. A diary lets you log and then analyze your decision making process. Such an “at-a-glance” is invaluable for doing the kind of self analysis you need to make sure your decision process continuously improves.

Every trade you make should be entered in your trade diary. Enter the date, time of entry, symbol, company name, number of shares, price per share, setup, trigger, expected trade duration and your subjective state. These entries should be made at the time of the trade. They decrease in value in proportion to how delayed you are in making the entry. In other words, make them right away!

Trade exits should be noted with similar items to the entry including the profit or loss. Of course, you’ll find that you’ll develop your own list of items to include. Whatever you do, be consistent.

Here’s a neat tip: also log trades you did NOT take but you seriously considered taking. Make a note of why you decided against the trade. Then you can go back later and see what might have happened if you had taken the trade. This will give you additional insights into your decision making process.

In addition to keeping a trade diary, you should also maintain a spreadsheet that shows you all your positions at a glance and how they’re doing. To get you started, here are some ideas for columns you can include in this spread sheet:

• Symbol
• Sector
• Description
• Quantity
• Purchase Price
• Purchase Date & Time
• Comm. Cost
• Latest Price
• Market Value
• Percentage of Assets
• Gain or (Loss)
• Percent Gain or (Loss)
• YTD Return
• Dividend Yield
• P/E Ratio
• Projected Growth Rate
• Average Daily Volume
• PEG Ratio
• Market Cap
• Beta

Depending on your trading style, you can add or remove columns. For example if you primarily day trade, you probably aren’t interested in dividends or PEG ratio. But these and other fundamental attributes are quite useful if you have a long term trading style.

The big difference between the list above and that which is maintained by your brokerage is that you continue to maintain the entries after the position is closed. Brokerages usually remove closed items from your list.

You’ll be surprised at all the things you discover once you start to develop a trade diary with a significant history. How often you review your trade diary will depend on the frequency of your trading. A day trader will want to do a review once a week. A long term trader can review his stocks picks quarterly.

Live long, document well and prosper.

With customers in more than 70 countries Doug Newberry enjoys his position as host of the “Market Toolbox On Demand” online radio show. He is also the editor of the “Market Toolbox Newsletter.” His company, Investing Systems Network specializes in providing financial tools and portfolio management software for its customers.

Technorati Tags: trading diary, stock trading, trading business, stock options

When a person decides to enter the financial markets and learn to trade, they bring years of personal experiences with them. Those experiences are usually a detriment to profiting as they are based on one’s life experiences. The financial markets, as well as all freely traded markets from stocks to commodities, from currencies to tulips, behave in a much different manner.

Typically, when we first learn how to trade, we study the markets and try to develop our own personal theories about how the markets work. Because we don’t actually conduct formal experiments though, we fall prey to psychological biases. Those same personal experiences, built over a lifetime, which helped us to advance and learn in our world, wind up being the very reason most traders fail to profit.

False Consensus Effect

One of these psychological biases is the false consensus effect… we tend to wrongly think that others believe what we believe and do what we will do, but that’s only our perspective and it can mislead us.

Why is it difficult to anticipate what people will do? Part of the problem lies in the fact that we are mere mortals. Humans have a limited capacity for understanding complex information. In some ways, people can process information better than a computer, but in other ways they cannot.

The false consensus effect is one of those rules of thumb that may bias our decisions. No matter what decision you ask people to make, no matter how important the issue, and no matter what choice is made, social psychologists have demonstrated that people over-estimate the number of others who agree with them.

There is a natural tendency to believe that our decisions are relatively normal, appropriate and similar to what our colleagues and peers would do in a similar situation.

We use our decisions as an “anchor” and evaluate what others would do based on what we would do. Decisions based on “our” life’s experiences. Our biases. Our interpretation of events and their consequences.

This decision-making bias can contribute to feelings of over-confidence. Once we make a decision, we tend to be confident that we are correct and that others will agree with us, but had we seen the situations from their perspective, we may see that they would behave quite differently.

Anticipating What The Masses Will Do

Market timing is often about anticipating what the masses will do. Will they buy or will they sell? It can be difficult to achieve.

Take the past several months, for example. With the war in iraq, recent terrorist attacks in Europe, high oil prices and concerns about future inflation, one might think that the masses would bail out of the markets.

But instead, the markets have rallied. In fact they have consistently rallied in the face of multiple concerns, any one of which could have derailed the advance.

It goes to show that you can’t always anticipate precisely how people will react to world events. It’s all a matter of having the right perspective, and it can be hard to find that perspective at times.

The Very Best Timing Strategies

The very best timing strategies follow market trends. They wait until the trend in confirmed and then climb on board, riding it as long as it lasts. If the trend fails, and some always do, they exit quickly and await the next trend.

This follows the old market saying, “cut your losses short and let your winners run.” Everyone has heard it but so few are able to adhere to it.

That is why we follow trends here at Fibtimer.com. We do not try to forecast the future like other timers do and usually fail at. We identify trends and take positions accordingly. If the trend fails we exit quickly. if it continues, we ride it to the end. That could be weeks, or even months as profits accumulate.

Without following a specific strategy, you have chaos. You will lose money.

Following a carefully defined strategy is the only sure way to be certain you will be in the right position, at the right time, when the markets take off in one direction and stay in that direction.

Emotions should have no place in your decisions and they absolutely have no place in ours. Unemotional buy and sell decisions, generated by tried and true timing strategies are the certain road to profits.

Technorati Tags: stock market, market experience, financial markets, timing strategies

Investment opportunities galore in today’s globalized world, but if you do not want to take too many risks and earn handsome returns as well, then mutual fund investments are certainly your best bet. No doubt, a large portion of your invested money will be ultimately channeled to the so-called volatile stock markets, but you need not worry because your funds and that of other investors will be put under the management of seasoned professionals who will take care of the risks involved and ensure that you get the best possible returns from your investments. Moreover, since the mutual fund company will not charge you anything more than a small amount as processing fees, it makes more sense to opt for mutual funds rather than to make direct investments in the stock market.

Mutual funds have always been one of the most secure investment options available because they are based on the time tested logic - “never place all your eggs in the same basket.” Money collected from retail investors such as you is channeled to various investment avenues such as equities, bonds, short-term money-market instruments and others, something that automatically reduces the associated investment risks. Investments risks are also reduced because most mutual fund companies often have intra company shareholdings that act as insurance against potential future downfalls or volatility in the money market.

It is not that your returns are guaranteed, but since the chances of earning profits is relatively more in case of mutual fund investments, it is always better to park your hard earned money in such secure instruments. You will benefit not only from the dividends that you will be entitled to receive, but also from the appreciation in the NAV (Net Asset Value) of your mutual fund units. Liquidity is also not a problem because you can sell your mutual fund units as and when you want at market rates (NAV). Your decision to sell will however be dictated by factors such as your present financial needs and your present and future financial goals and objectives.

Mutual funds are certainly one of the most secure investment avenues, but still you need to be prudent simply because not all mutual funds available in the market offer the same benefits. To ensure the safety and profitability of your investments, you will thus have to select only those funds that hold the most potential for future growth. It is only then will you be able to do justice to the phraseology: “Mutual Funds - A secure investment!”

GREG S. owns and manages his Mutual Funds website where you can get more useful information about investing in various types of Mutual Funds.

Technorati Tags: mutual funds, investment, stock market, secure investments

Head to head for the supercycle and the subprime mortgage lenders.

In the end of 1999 there were discussions that this was the new economy where recessions were something for the history books. That was not true then and the concept what we see today is a supercycle where US are going into a soft landing and other regions of the global economy are taking the responsibility to withhold the growth. Maybe there is some truth to that, maybe not, time will tell.

Though a fact is that something is going on, GM is no more the world’s biggest carmaker, China passed the US as Japans biggest trading partner and the US stock market just keep going to new heights.

The profit growth for the first quarter was 6% which is around 3% higher than expected, though not double digits that been a fact for the last 12 quarters. The Dow Jones a have going trough 13000 which is a psychological important number. According to sympathisers of the Dow theory everything is in place for the market to continue the strong uptrend the market been in for some years now.

No news in the housing market, the weakness is continuing and the sales on available residences are down over 8%. The reason to one of the biggest moves on the downside since the end of the 1980: s is the problems with subprime mortgage lenders that having problems getting there money back and can not refinance cause the housing prices are coming off and giving no space for refinancing. More and more subprime borrowers are getting closer to been borrowing more than the house or flat they been borrowing for are worth and can not refinance it with new loans when the prices coming off.

The situation of the subprime mortgages in the US housing sector is serious and can kill the theory of a supercycle very quickly if the weakness in the sector is continuing. The sales for the housing sector have in the end of the first quarter been strengthen up with an increase of 2,6% but there seems just to be a small correction in an steep downtrend. The second quarter will be important for if it will be a soft landing or a recession in the US economy.

The building and investments in the housing sector will be holding back the US growth till at least the second part of 2007. What we see right now is a overall weakness in the US economy but the market seems to think this will be just a short correction in a strong uptrend which leads to that the financial market foremost looks at the levels of profits and the consistently low global inflation that seems to be intact at this stage. Other aspects are the low unemployment rate connected with the strong buying power that the US consumer are withholding and the expression “never underestimate the US consumer” is still appropriate to be used.

Other aspects not to underestimate are the strength in Europe. Germany have recently having very strong numbers when it comes to consumer confidence and growth, likewise for France Great Britain and Spain, which is a fact that is very important to withhold the valuations in the stock market.

Technorati Tags: real+estate mortgages

The Chinese growth was 11,1% for the first quarter and the core inflation was up 3,3% which is twice as much as 6 month ago and the risks have been increasing in the Chinese economy.

The China central bank, The People Bank of China, will probably start increasing the interest but there might not be enough and I predict that China will start appreciate the Yuan and by that try to balance the economy and keep the inflation on hold. With a 25% increase in investments on Chinese soil the challenge to keep the economy in balance and the inflation low without appreciate the Yuan is in my view not possible.

Interesting numbers when it comes to GDP is that studies have pointed out that 5000 GDP per capita is an level where the economy increase there growth helped by the consumers starts moving up as an important force to keep the growth strong. When looking at the GDP Numbers region by region some interesting data can by found.

Regions as China, India and many countries in the Eastern Europe region have for an example been achieved the 5000 GDP number per capita or are very close to do so. Private consumption is and will always be a very important issue for wealth and economic growth and when regions as China and India is getting there where more than 1/3 of the worlds population lives, that will have a global effects on growth and wealth.

The market theory mentioned as the “supercycle” where there will be a soft landing or no landing at all before the growth coming back and pushes the global economy forward might be a fact. The US economy have been weakening but there is not any definite signs of an recession and good signs from Japan and Europe and the fact that Russia and China moving on stronger than ever eases the fact that the US economy have been going into an slowing phase.

The US housing market is still something that worries the market but the today’s tighter lending policy helping the housing market getting out of hand. The GDP numbers in the US for the first quarter is down two 2% growth, down 0,5% from the weak fourth quarter 2006. We don not want any more downside on the GDP numbers to keep the markets confident up.

To make money at this stage there seems to be wise to going short the US. Mentioned before the dollar is a strong case going short and long the Chinese Yuan as well as other Asian currencies seems to be a rather high probability to make some money, bur other currencies can be very interesting as well.

The companies are overall rather positive regarding the future and big things are happening. GM are no longer the worlds biggest car manufacturer and China have becoming Japans, (the worlds second biggest economy) most important trading partner and the Dow Jones is pushing through 13000.

Is the “Supercycle” a fact or is there the 2000^{th century} “new economy” in a new shape and form?

FED seems in this stage to keep the rates on this level through out the year of 2007, the inflation is still to high to consider any cuts and the slowing growth makes it unlikely that FED will risking going in to recession with another increase.

There might be many things to be worried about the US economy but the market still moving up week by week. The IMF is though overall positive regarding the economy and predicts that the global economy only slightly will be affected by the slowing US growth. The global growth will sliding down to 4,9% for 2007 from 5,4% for 2006. That means that the global growth will be around 5% for the fourth year in a road, the strongest growth in 30 years. I think that much of that comes out that the start of the 20th century was the toughest for a very long time.

So why is the market keep on moving up when the US economy is slowing? At this stage it seems like Europe and Asia is taking on the US weakness and the growth for in example Europe and Japan have been moving up from 1,5% to over 2,5 % in a short amount of time. Another fact is that the slowing US economy is because of the housing market, the big effect comes if the private consumption coming in weak further on.

Considering the impact of the US weakness the global economy is not as sensitive as most people thinks. Chinas export to the US is only around 6% of the total GDP, but it is though increasing.

The market seems to think that FED is closer to an interest decrease than before, that FED is more worried for a recession than the inflation getting out of control.

Global Stockmarket

This part will consider regions as the US, Europe, the Nordic region, Eastern Europe, South America and Asia. A strong global growth have been moving almost all markets to good result for 2006 and below is quick overview of areas for the 2007.

Another good week for the Balkan region. The Nordic region also holding up and Japan had a good week though the start of 2007 not been strong though the fundamentals for a good 2007 seem to be there.

Raw materials been coming in focus when as I been giving focus the last month metals is been moving up strong with Copper in the lead. China is the answer to the copper price move, the China import of copper is almost 60% higher than the same period of 2006.

Currency

Last weeks predictions that the dollar should be moving sideward for a while before taking off again was wrong and the dollar just keep on weakening and the market seems to looking forward to that the weakness in the US economy will make FED cut interest rather sooner than later. The best case for speculating in currencies right now seems to be taking on China versus the US. The US seems to be trying to keep on taking a short cut to handling there great deficit by letting the dollar weakening to make the export getting stronger and by that hold the deficit under there arms. China on the other side might revalue there currency to stop the increasing inflation rate being seen the last couple of months. This scenario will keep the trend intact.

Time will tell if I am right.