Yet another stockbroker

Finally the market bounced back, the market always does sooner or later, just impossible to know on what specific week or day. One day not to long ago I heard some words I would like to quote “never try to beat the market, be in the market”. The winners in the long run are the ones that always are in the market, try to pick high and lows is a success for very, very few.

Last week was a good week to make some adjustments to not fall in to making decisions based on other things than fact and rational thinking.

The market weakness has hit the emerging markets the most so in that case the weeks drop is by the book.

The word recession has ones again been making the market changing ear and at this point it only takes in the news in a negative way. Though I have been waiting for a bounce I do not thing this will be a very long bounce, maybe one week, and two at the most, then a movement sideways for a month or so will be the case. Moodys “risk of recession” indicator shows a 15 % risk for the economy to go in to a recession and that is an historical low probability.

The former FED chief starting out by saying a recession was just round the corner for the US economy but after some time the speech predicted that there is a risk for a recession but it is not likely. What was taking the Asian markets off guard was a rumour that there might be a 20 tax on profits made in the market, the news hit the shanghai market which came back 9 % in one day.

The growth is still strong, the inflation low and the profits are at historical very high levels and though the cycle probably hit the top the economy is moving on and the companies are investing and employing which will in my opinion take the market further in the year of 2007.

The inflation is not in focus at this point but the growth is, that the growth was weak in the third and fourth quarter in 2006 was expected but now it is important that the growth is not coming back any further to keep the market moving.

Global Stockmarket

This part will consider regions as the US, Europe, the Nordic region, Eastern Europe, South America and Asia. A strong global growth have been moving almost all markets to good result for 2006 and below is quick overview of areas for the 2007.

A weak week all over with emerging markets in the bottom, a drop between -5-10% all over. The last two month winners Turkey, Asia and Latin America did take a hit. The Balkan region is though holding up pretty good considering the circumstances.

Raw materials as Copper and Zinc are holding up and Copper is an interesting turn around case that I will follow up on the next couple of weeks.

Currency

The US dollar was during the week taking a hit cause of the Greenspan speech and the weak trend for the dollar is still intact.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 5th, 2007 at 9:00 pm and is filed under Weekly Market Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.